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The referendum that is scottish Bookies were predicting an 80 percent chance of a ‘no’ vote, even though the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.

Did bookies know the results regarding the Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.

Scotland has voted in which to stay the UK, with 55.3 percent of voters determining against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and votes that are losing since wide as 10 percent; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ promotions had been split straight down the middle.

The fact is, polls were all over the place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote within the weeks leading up to the referendum. And they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory although they were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day.

Margins of mistake

Not the bookies, though. They’d it all figured down ages ago. Whilst the pollsters’ predictions had been see-sawing, online activities gambling outfit Betfair had already decided to spend bettors who had their money on a’no’ vote several days prior to the referendum even occurred. And while there was clearly a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made from a place of supreme confidence, because the markets that are betting rating the probability of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the very least a week before the vote happened. It had been a forecast that, unlike compared to the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead up to the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when compared to the gambling areas, and exactly why is the news in such thrall for their wildly results that are unreliable? The polling organizations openly admit that their studies are inaccurate, often advising that we should permit a margin of error, commonly around five percent. Which means in a closely fought race, such as the Scottish referendum, their info is utterly worthless. In a race where one party, based on the polls, is leading by, say, 52 percent, the presence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless.

The Wrong Questions

You will find many factors which make polls unreliable, too many, in reality, to list here. Sometimes the sample size of respondents is simply too low, or it’s unrepresentative of the population. Often they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are dishonest or sloppy about recording information. However the ultimate, prevailing reason why polls fail is they usually ask the wrong question. Instead of asking people who they’ll vote for, they must be asking the question that the bookies constantly ask: ‘Who do you think will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers shows that this concern yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also reflect on the opinions of those because it may yield more honest answers. around them, and maybe additionally’

Dishonest Answers

In a instance for instance the Scottish referendum, where there is a large and popular movement for change, those interviewed by pollsters are far more likely to state their support for change, while curbing their concerns about the feasible negative effects. When asked about an issue on the location, it’s easier to express the perceived view that is popular. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might express the appealing idea of severing ties with a remote and unpopular federal government in Westminster, but it means uncertainty and feasible chaos that is economic.

As Wolfers states, ‘There is a historical propensity for polling to overstate the reality of success of referendums, perhaps because we are more prepared to share with pollsters we will vote for change than to do so. Such biases are less inclined to distort polls that ask people who they think will win. Indeed, in giving their expectations, some respondents may even reflect on whether or not they believe recent polling.

In a nutshell, when asked whether they’d vote for an independent Scotland, a significant quantity of Scots apparently lied. Gamblers, having said that, were brutally honest.

Suffolk Downs to Close Wynn Everett License that is following Pick

Suffolk Downs in happier times: Horseracing attendance has fallen by 40 per cent in the last few years. Now the choice of Wynn Everett for the East Massachusetts casino permit has sealed the racetrack’s fate.(Image:

Suffolk Downs, the historic horseracing that is thoroughbred in East Boston, is to close, officials have actually established. Meanwhile, Wynn Resorts celebrates securing the single East Massachusetts casino permit with regards to their Wynn Everett project, that may see the construction of a $1.2 billion casino resort in Everett, barring an unlikely casino repeal vote in November.

Suffolk Downs is be the casualty that is first of week’s selection process. In favoring the Wynn bid over that of the Mohegan Sun’s, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has hammered the nail that is final the coffin of thoroughbred horseracing in their state. Suffolk is one of just two horseracing tracks in Massachusetts, together with only one exclusively for thoroughbreds.

Mohegan Sun’s proposed resort was to have been built on land owned by Suffolk Downs in Revere, and the racetrack had pledged to continue horseracing there for at least 15 years should Mohegan Sun win the bid. However, the Commission, which voted 3:1 against Mohegan Sun, decided that the Wynn proposal offered better potential to generate jobs and start up new avenues of revenue for hawaii. Suffolk Downs COO Chip Tuttle made the statement that the track wouldn’t normally have the ability to continue immediately after the Gaming Commission’s decision ended up being made general public.

End for the Track

‘we have been extraordinarily disappointed as this course of action is likely to cost the Commonwealth a huge number of jobs, small business and family farms,’ Tuttle said. ‘ We shall be meeting with employees and horsemen over the next several times to speak about how we wind down racing operations, as being a legacy that is 79-year of rushing in Massachusetts will be coming to a conclusion, ensuing in unemployment and uncertainty for many hardworking people.’

The industry has been hit by way of a 40 per cent decrease in the last few years and Suffolk’s closure is likely to influence hundreds of thoroughbred breeders, owners, farriers and others who make their living in Massachusetts horseracing industry. The need to safeguard Suffolk Downs was among the primary motivations for the 2011 Gambling Act, which expanded casino gaming in Massachusetts and created the Massachusetts that is east casino, and the choice to go with Wynn has angered many people.

‘Today’s decision to honor the license to Everett effectively put several hundred of my constituents out of work,’ stated Representative RoseLee Vincent, a Revere Democrat. ‘It is disturbing that the commission could minmise the jobs of 800 hardworking people.’

Rich History

Numerous industry workers feel betrayed by politicians plus the Gaming Commission. ‘What’s depressing is we worked so very hard to have that gaming bill passed with all the indisputable fact that it was going to save your self the farms and save racing in Massachusetts,’ said George F. Brown, the owner and manager of the farm that is breeding who added that the ruling would ‘probably virtually … placed every one of the farms like mine out of company.’

Suffolk Downs launched in 1935, immediately after parimutuel betting was legalized within the state. In 1937, Seabiscuit won the Massachusetts Handicap here, breaking the background in the process. The race had been attended by 40,000 individuals. The track has hosted races featuring legendary racehorses like Whirlaway, Funny Cide, and Cigar over the years. In 1966, the Beatles played a concert here on the track’s infield in front side of 24,000 screaming fans.

Fundamentally, however, a history that is richn’t enough to save yourself Suffolk Downs, and, ironically and poignantly, the bill that was made to rescue this famous old racetrack appears to have killed it.

Donald Trump Poised to Take Back Trump Atlantic City Casinos

Is Donald Trump serious about saving Atlantic City or is he just interested in publicity? (Image: AP)

Can Donald Trump save Atlantic City? And will he?

The word from The Donald is that he can, and what’s more, he says he’s precisely what AC has been lacking every one of these years. This week and its non-Donald-related owner Trump Entertainment prepared to file for bankruptcy, the billionaire real estate mogul announced that he is ‘looking into’ mounting a rescue attempt as the Trump Plaza shuttered its doors.

Expected by the Press of Atlantic City whether he would step in to truly save The Trump Plaza as well as its at-risk sister home, the Trump Taj Mahal, the Donald said, ‘We’ll see what are the results. It. if i could help the people of Atlantic City I’ll do’

Later on, on Twitter, and clearly warming to his theme, Trump said: ‘I left Atlantic City years ago, good timing. Now I may buy back, at lower price, to conserve Plaza & Taj. They were run defectively by funds!’

Trump has been hugely critical of his company that is former Trump in recent months, and has sought to distance himself from its stricken casino properties. In July, perhaps catching wind of impending bankruptcy, he launched legal procedures to have his name removed through the gambling enterprises so as to protect his brand, of which he’s hugely protective.

Sentimental Side?

‘Since Mr. Trump left Atlantic City many years ago,’ states the lawsuit, ‘the license entities have allowed the casino properties to fall into a state that is utter of and have otherwise failed to use and manage the casino properties in accordance with the high criteria of quality and luxury required under the license contract.’

Trump left the nj casino industry last year, and Trump Entertainment was bought down by a small grouping of hedge fund managers and bondholders that are corporate who have been allowed to retain the brand name in return for a 10 per cent ownership stake for Trump in the reorganized business. He has had nothing to do with the casinos’ day-to-day operations subsequently.

‘Does anyone notice that Atlantic City lost its magic once I left years ago,’ Trump tweeted. ‘It can be so sad to see what has happened to Atlantic City. Therefore numerous decisions that are bad the pols over the years: airport, convention center, etc.’

Within the early ’80s, Trump embarked on a joint project with getaway Inn and Harrahs to build the break Inn Casino Hotel. It had been completed in 1984, and he promptly bought out his business partners and renamed the property the Trump Plaza. It was the casino that is first ever owned, and this week it closed. Could it be that the notoriously cold-blooded home developer features a sentimental side? Or perhaps is it, simply, as many people think, that he can’t resist some publicity that is good?

Publicity Stunt a Possibility

Senator Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) thinks in the explanation that is latter.

‘Donald is just a guy who likes to see his name into the paper,’ he said. ‘He’s never ever been shy about looking for publicity or publicity that is obtaining. The question is whether this is more promotion for Donald or whether he’s serious about coming back to Atlantic City in a way that is real. We will see down the line. Is Donald Trump wanting to get some promotion, or is he serious? And if he’s serious, come on in and write some checks.’

‘I am able to see Donald’s ego wanting him to come back as a savior,’ agreed gaming consultant Steve Norton. ‘ I don’t think Donald’s title would assist the casinos that much,’ he said. ‘Our issue is, other casinos have opened up and cut off traffic from Philadelphia and New York.’

Intriguingly, so when if to spite the naysayers, the Trump’s helicopter was seen arriving on top regarding the Taj on Tuesday. Could it be that Trump is really prepared to place his cash where their mouth is?




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